International Relations Amidst Global Uncertainty

In recent years, we have witnessed profound transformations within the international order, characterized by escalating geopolitical tensions, significant economic realignments, and a series of complex challenges that demand a strategic re-calibration from nations worldwide. As Nigeria, Africa's most populous country and a pivotal economic and diplomatic actor, it is essential for us to navigate these complexities with foresight, pragmatism, and resilience, while steadfastly upholding our values of democratic freedoms and celebrating our rich diversity.

The global landscape today is marked by a myriad of factors that influence international relations. The post-Cold War consensus that has guided global governance for nearly three decades is fracturing. We see the resurgence of great power competition, notably among established powers, which has led to a renewed focus on national interests over collective global goals. Furthermore, multilateral-ism, once a cornerstone of international cooperation, is increasingly fragmented, as nations prioritize bilateral engagements and regional alliances over global frameworks.

In addition, the proliferation of regional conflicts exacerbates this unpredictability. From ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe to instability in parts of the Middle East and Africa, the implications of these conflicts extend beyond their immediate borders, affecting global security and economic stability. As Nigeria seeks to engage with the world, we must remain acutely aware of these dynamics and their implications for our diplomacy.

In light of these complexities, it is imperative that our foreign policy is grounded in foundational principles that reflect our national values and aspirations. We must prioritize the protection and promotion of democratic freedoms, which are essential to fostering a stable and inclusive society. Our commitment to diversity must also be at the forefront of our diplomatic engagements, ensuring that we advocate for the rights and voices of all Nigerians and Africans on the global stage.

Moreover, economic diplomacy will be critical as we seek to navigate the challenges posed by tariffs, trade wars, and shifting economic alliances. By fostering partnerships that emphasize mutual benefits and sustainable development, we can enhance our economic resilience and secure our place in the global economy.

As we confront an increasingly unpredictable world, it is crucial to acknowledge the broader responsibilities we all share in developing and implementing a diplomacy that is fit for purpose. Each of us—government officials, civil society organizations, and private sector leaders—plays a role in shaping Nigeria’s international relations. By fostering collaboration and dialogue among stakeholders, we can harness hidden opportunities that may arise from uncertainty.

Climate change, for instance, presents both a profound challenge and an opportunity for innovative diplomacy. By positioning Nigeria as a leader in sustainable practices and climate advocacy, we can not only address environmental concerns but also attract investment and partnerships that contribute to our economic growth.

It is essential to assess the evolving landscape of international relations and the implications for Nigeria. The war in Ukraine has not only reshaped energy markets but has also disrupted supply chains and intensified food insecurity, particularly affecting developing economies. The repercussions of this conflict resonate deeply within Nigeria, where the interconnections of global markets has never been more apparent.

The crisis in Ukraine is not an isolated event; it is part of a broader pattern of instability that includes the ongoing conflict in Sudan and the Sahel. These situations have underscored the limitations of the traditional rules-based international order, as both state and non-state actors increasingly assert their influence in regions afflicted by chronic instability. The implications of these dynamics for Nigeria’s foreign policy cannot be overstated.

Simultaneously, the global economy is grappling with persistent inflationary pressures and a rising debt crisis in emerging markets. As trade partnerships undergo significant reconfiguration, Nigeria must adapt to these changes to safeguard its economic interests. The rise of new technologies, from artificial intelligence to digital currencies, presents both opportunities and challenges that require careful navigation. These innovations demand a reevaluation of economic governance and national security strategies to ensure that Nigeria is both competitive and secure in an increasingly digital world.

Climate change remains an existential threat, disproportionately affecting Africa despite the continent contributing the least to global emissions. As Nigeria strives to position itself as a leader in the region, it is imperative that our foreign policy reflects a commitment to environmental sustainability and climate resilience. Addressing these challenges requires a cooperative approach, engaging with international partners to foster sustainable development and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

In this context, Nigeria’s foreign policy must be dynamic and responsive. It is crucial to protect our national interests while engaging as a responsible member of the international community. The efficiency of our foreign policy should be a priority; as the adage goes, if diplomacy is war by other means, then avoiding conflict should be regarded as a significant diplomatic achievement. The costs of conflict are profound, and it is essential that Nigeria invests in building diplomatic capacity and exhausting all available avenues for conflict resolution.

History provides us with invaluable lessons. We often highlight Nigeria’s sacrifices in Liberia and Sierra Leone during the 1990s, but we must also acknowledge the quieter achievements of diplomacy that led to the peaceful transfer of power in Gambia. This success, achieved through public diplomacy, back channels, and direct engagement, illustrates the effectiveness of a nuanced approach to foreign relations.

As defence budgets escalate worldwide, we must remember that tragedies avoided are often forgotten more easily than the sacrifices made. This reality underscores the need for diplomacy to take the lead in international relations, even in a transactional world. It is always better to engage in dialogue than to resort to force.

Realistic outcomes in diplomacy require realistic expectations. While we may not always achieve perfect results, especially in contexts where common interests and good faith are limited, the pursuit of dialogue remains essential. The current international landscape is witnessing the deconstruction of an order that has historically failed to provide equitable access to financing, markets, and the tools necessary for peace and prosperity, particularly for Nigeria and the broader African continent. As this order breaks down, the future remains uncertain, and it is our responsibility as a key regional power to advocate for Africa. We must strive to create a modern and dynamic order that reflects our national interests and those we share with our neighbors.

This responsibility is fundamentally diplomatic in nature. The increasing securitization of international relations often shifts focus from strategic engagement to tactical responses, reducing the space available for dialogue, compromise, and negotiation. In a world where security considerations increasingly lean towards hardware and technology, we must not lose sight of diplomacy as a profoundly human process. While a strong defense capability can serve as a significant asset in negotiations, and there are indeed moments when national interests necessitate a forceful response, the sequencing of our actions is crucial. The lives and livelihoods of our citizens depend on our ability to navigate these complex interactions wisely.

Historically, Nigeria’s foreign policy has centered on Africa, guided by principles of non-alignment, economic diplomacy, and a commitment to global multilateral-ism.

These foundational principles remain relevant; however, they must evolve to address the realities of our time. In light of the current global landscape, I propose four strategic pillars that will define Nigeria’s foreign policy approach during this period of uncertainty:


Strengthening Regional Cooperation:
We must enhance collaboration with our African neighbors to foster stability and economic growth. This includes leveraging regional organizations to address common challenges and pursue shared opportunities.

Promoting Economic Diplomacy:
Nigeria should prioritize economic partnerships that enhance trade and investment, ensuring that our economic interests align with those of our partners while advocating for fair access to global markets.

Advocating for Multilateral-ism:
In a world where unilateral actions often dominate, Nigeria must champion the importance of multilateral engagements, ensuring that African voices are heard in global decision-making processes.

Enhancing Human Security:
Our foreign policy must focus on human security, addressing the root causes of conflict and instability through diplomacy, development aid, and humanitarian support.


Nigeria finds itself at a crucial juncture in its foreign policy. Amidst rising uncertainties, the nation is committed to enhancing its strategic autonomy and actively shaping international engagements that align with our national interests. Our foreign policy is built on two key pillars: strategic autonomy and economic diplomacy, both of which are essential for navigating the complexities of the current global order.

The first pillar of our foreign policy, strategic autonomy, emphasizes Nigeria’s need to assert itself in global affairs. In times of shifting power dynamics, it is imperative that Nigeria positions itself not merely as a passive actor but as an influential player. To this end, we are strengthening bilateral relations with emerging powers such as China, India, and Brazil, while also maintaining constructive partnerships with established allies including the United States and the European Union. These relationships are crucial for ensuring that Nigeria's voice is heard and that our interests are prioritized on the global stage.

By fostering deeper ties with these diverse partners, Nigeria aims to navigate the uncertainties of international relations and enhance its negotiating power. Our strategic autonomy allows us to engage in a manner that reflects our unique national priorities, ensuring that we actively shape the outcomes of international discussions and agreements.

The second pillar of our foreign policy focuses on economic diplomacy and sustainable development. In light of increasing volatility in global markets, Nigeria is prioritizing economic diplomacy to attract foreign investment and enhance trade partnerships. A critical component of this strategy is the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which presents a unique opportunity for Nigeria to consolidate its position as a regional economic hub.

A noteworthy example of our commitment to economic diversification and the creation of new markets is the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), also known as the NIGAL pipeline. This ambitious project aims to transport natural gas from Nigeria to Algeria, potentially connecting to the European gas network. Additionally, the proposed Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) is set to transport natural gas over a distance of 5,660 km, further linking Nigeria to Europe via the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline. Both initiatives symbolize Nigeria’s potential to diversify Europe’s gas supplies and reinforce its role in the new international energy landscape.

Beyond enhancing trade relations, Nigeria is focused on economic diversification to reduce its over reliance on hydrocarbon revenues. This involves deepening engagement with global partners in sectors such as renewable energy, technology transfer, and industrialization. Economic diplomacy encompasses not only the influx of investment but also the strategic positioning of Nigeria in the global economy.

Nigeria, as a pivotal player in West Africa, faces a unique set of challenges that cannot be addressed in isolation. Our approach to foreign policy acknowledges the transnational nature of security threats, which necessitates a collaborative regional and international strategy.

Nigeria is currently confronting a multitude of security challenges, including terrorism, banditry, and piracy. These issues pose significant threats not only to our national security but also to regional stability. Our foreign policy framework recognizes that these threats are interconnected and require a robust response. Through the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Nigeria has taken a leadership role in initiatives aimed at countering military takeovers and fostering democratic consolidation across the West African region.

The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) serves as a critical mechanism in our ongoing fight against terrorism and insurgency in the Lake Chad Basin. This initiative exemplifies a homegrown African solution to an African problem, demonstrating that with proper framing and preferred solutions, such approaches can be more effective than external strategies imposed from abroad.

Maritime security remains a vital concern for Nigeria, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea, which has been historically plagued by piracy and other criminal activities. Under the President Bola Tinubu administration, we have witnessed a significant enhancement in maritime security through the implementation of the Deep Blue Project and regional coordination with the African Union and international partners. Notably, there has not been a single piracy incident in Nigeria’s territorial waters since the administration took office. This achievement translates to safer sea routes, which subsequently lowers shipping and insurance costs, thereby boosting industry, job creation, and economic opportunities.

In a time of shifting global security alliances, Nigeria remains committed to reinforcing its defense diplomacy. We prioritize intelligence-sharing mechanisms and peacekeeping contributions to foster both regional and international stability. The necessity for a militarily strong Nigeria is paramount; our ability to keep our region and the African continent safe relies on it.

Moreover, the prevailing pay-as-you-go approach to weapons systems highlights the urgency for Nigeria to develop domestic production capabilities with the assistance of willing partners. This endeavor demands skilled diplomacy and strategic acumen, which the Tinubu administration is adeptly navigating through the 4-D framework: democracy, development, demography, and diaspora.

In an age marked by straining multilateral-ism, Nigeria remains steadfast in its commitment to strengthening global institutions. Our focus is clear: we strive for inclusivity and responsiveness to the needs of developing countries, ensuring that our voice resonates within the corridors of power on the world stage.

One of the primary areas of Nigeria's advocacy is the reform of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The current structure of the UNSC does not adequately reflect contemporary global realities, particularly the urgent need for permanent African representation. Nigeria's call for reform is not merely a matter of representation; it is about establishing a more equitable system that acknowledges and addresses the unique challenges faced by developing nations.

Nigeria's participation in international forums such as the G77, BRICS+, and the Commonwealth underscores our dedication to championing the interests of the Global South. These platforms provide critical opportunities for dialogue and collaboration on pressing issues such as trade, climate negotiations, and financial governance. As we navigate these complex terrains, our focus remains on advocating for policies that promote equitable growth and sustainable development for all.

Climate diplomacy stands out as a key priority for Nigeria. In our efforts to secure climate financing for African nations, we are committed to a just transition that not only addresses environmental challenges but also promotes green industrialization. This dual approach ensures that we are not only tackling climate change but also fostering economic opportunities that empower our communities. Nigeria's voice in climate negotiations is vital as we push for frameworks that recognize the unique circumstances of African nations and facilitate access to the resources needed for a sustainable future.

It is essential to recognize that effective multilateral engagement extends beyond the realm of diplomacy. It involves leveraging collective action to confront challenges that transcend national borders. From pandemics to cyber threats, these issues require collaborative solutions that no single nation can address alone. Nigeria's strategic partnerships and alliances are instrumental in fostering a unified approach to these global challenges.

To navigate this intricate landscape, we must acknowledge that a nation’s foreign policy is only as robust as the intellectual and strategic framework supporting it. This is where platforms like the Agora Policy Forum play an invaluable role. By facilitating collaboration among policymakers, scholars, and industry leaders, we can foster thought leadership that informs our diplomatic choices. It is imperative that Nigeria remains proactive, adaptive, and innovative in its foreign engagements, particularly as we face the challenges of global uncertainty.

Nigeria's foreign policy is being shaped by the realities of a multi-polar world characterized by uncertainty. By embracing strategic autonomy and prioritizing economic diplomacy, Nigeria is committed to asserting its interests on the global stage. As we navigate this complex terrain, we remain focused on building partnerships that promote sustainable development and economic resilience, ensuring that Nigeria emerges as a key player in the evolving international order.

As we look to the future, evidence-based policy making, a long-term vision, and a commitment to national and continental advancement must underpin our foreign relations strategy. Nigeria is poised to navigate these complexities with a clear focus on our priorities, ensuring that we are not only participants in the global arena but also leaders advocating for a fairer and more equitable world.

Nigeria's voice and agency in international relations are vital as we strive for a more inclusive global order.